Playing for profit, healing for survivel: The Economics, Risks and Legal Protection of Portuguese Professional Football

Abstract

Sport is increasingly recognised as a major economic and social phenomenon, contributing to employment, tourism, infrastructure, and national identity. Within this context, football stands out as the most global and economically significant sport, combining mass popularity, commercialisation, and international reach. Within this landscape, Portuguese professional football represents a distinctive case. Unlike the major European leagues, where revenues largely derive from ticket sales, broadcasting rights, and sponsorships, Portuguese sport societies rely structurally on the transfer market, positioning players as their most valuable assets in a producer-driven economy. Clubs play for profit by developing and exporting talent, yet their survival depends on the health, availability, and legal protection of those same players. Injuries, therefore, emerge as a critical disruptor of financial stability, sporting performance, and institutional governance. The overarching objective of this research is to underscore the pivotal role of players in the Portuguese football industry, where the business model predominantly depends on the transfer market and relies on homegrown talent within a producer-driven structure. To achieve this, the thesis pursues four objectives: (i) to analyse the economic structure of Portuguese professional football and the role of players as strategic assets; (ii) to identify and evaluate predictors of injury severity using artificial intelligence applied to real-world data; (iii) to assess the incidence and severity of injuries across competitive tiers and identify risk patterns; and (iv) to critically evaluate the legal and regulatory framework of occupational risk and insurance, with a particular focus on Law No. 48/2023 and its comparative implications. These objectives were addressed through four scientific articles, each dedicated to one of these dimensions, providing complementary perspectives on the economics, risks, and regulation of Portuguese professional football Methodologically, the thesis adopts an interdisciplinary and predominantly deductive approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques. It integrates financial and macroeconomic analysis of revenues and transfers; predictive modelling through a deep neural network applied to 1,639 injury records across five seasons; epidemiological and statistical methods, including descriptive, inferential, and cluster analysis, to examine injury patterns; and qualitative legal and regulatory analysis, situating Portugal’s high-risk insurance regime in comparative perspective with other major jurisdictions. Taken together, the four studies confirm that football players constitute the most important assets of Portuguese professional football, with their economic rights standing as the most highly valued intangible within the transfer-driven business model, directly shaping both club sustainability and macroeconomic outcomes. The thesis advances theoretical understanding by demonstrating the interdependence of economics, clinical risk, and legal governance in a system where injury risk undermines asset value and exposes structural fragility. Empirically, it provides original evidence on the predictors of injury severity, the incidence and distribution of injuries across leagues and player profiles and confirms that Portugal has established a unique work accident insurance system for professional football players, offering stronger protection than comparable international frameworks. Practically, it offers guidance for clubs, policymakers, and insurers, highlighting the need for balanced financial management, data-driven injury prevention and rehabilitation, and statutory protection that secures player welfare, financial resilience, and competitive fairness.