The European Union’s Potential in Mitigating Climate Change Caused by Tourism: Classification of the 27 EU Member States Tourists’ Sustainable Behaviours

Abstract

Climate change is now a global phenomenon with severe social and economic implications, including for tourism. Tourism is currently one of the most dynamic economic sectors in the world and one of the main ones responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time as it contributes to global warming, the tourism sector is also one of the primary victims of climate change. Strengthening climate change mitigation measures is paramount for the sectors’ resilience. These changes require a collective and concerted effort by all stakeholders, including tourists, to transition to a tourism sector that minimises its environmental footprint. The question arises whether tourists are willing to change their habits towards an environmentally sustainable tourism. This study proposes a system for classifying citizens from the 27 European Union (EU) member states as future sustainable tourists. The data used were retrieved from the European survey—Flash Eurobarometer 499, involving 25711 European citizens. The proposed method relies on a decision tree-based algorithm—Random Forest, to achieve intelligent classifications based on Machine Learning. The implementation of this classification system was preceded by the exploration of respondents’ willingness to change, in the future, their travel and tourist habits towards environmental sustainability by gender, age, and region of residence. The main findings suggest a notable trend in EU countries towards greater tourism sustainability among women belonging to Generation Y (aged between 30 and 44) ​​and from the Eastern European region. With this information, the implemented algorithm can classify the environmental sustainability of EU citizens as future tourists with an accuracy of 63%. This study enriches the theoretical understanding of the intention of tourists’ pro-environmental behaviour. It highlights the need to adopt specific measures to increase awareness of human action in tourism for male citizens, for older generations, and for south, west, and north European regions.