Introducing the Hyperdynamic Adaptive Learning Fusion (HALF) model for superior predictive analytics in E-learning

Abstract

Today’s complex world is defined by digital changes in educational paradigms to which E-learning has contributed significantly, and as such, accurate prediction methods are needed for student performance modeling. In this paper a new and complex model is proposed, namely the Hyperdynamic Adaptive Learning Fusion (HALF) model that leverages adaptive computing paradigms and artificial intelligence to build a fusion of learning that adapts to the new learning patterns. Many conventional predictive models employ linear and simplistic relationships to predict an outcome from an input; hence, they fail to decompose complex and heterogenic data patterns of educational data and also suffer from scalability issues for dealing with large volumes of data. To overcome these issues, the HALF model employs the relevant ensemble learning algorithms that consist of bagging, boosting, and an innovative adaptive fusion strategy that integrates base and adaptive models to achieve higher accuracy and resilience in the latter. In doing so, and by adopting the scientific method of working on trials and errors and rigorous assessment employing a database derived from the Open University VLE, the investigation presented in this paper provides compelling evidence of the HALF model’s superior efficacy, which yields an accuracy of 87%. 2%, precision of 85. 4% It has been proved that 3% of all students have significant learning disabilities, while the recall value is 89. 1%, surpassing traditional methods. The model’s equation can be easily applied to any variety of courses and of students, which makes it highly beneficial to educators and administrators; at the same time, the model is highly interpretable. Therefore, HALF model proves to be a revolutionary addition to the current kind of statistical modeling in E-learning that depicts student engagement pattern into more precise and accurate form, reduce biases in all way possible and provides solution that might help to improve the course outcome. The next steps will consist in optimizing the architectural properties of the model as well as the model’s capacity to be scaled, and more generally in learning about the model’s possibilities and limitations across different learning environments.