Evolution of the Real Estate Market in Portugal in the 21st Century: An Analysis of the First Twenty-Five Years

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the Portuguese residential real estate market during the first twenty-five years of the 21st century, focusing on the short-run determinants of housing transaction values. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2025, the study applies an econometric time-series framework that explicitly addresses non-stationarity. The model evaluates the dynamic effects of macroeconomic performance, housing credit conditions, indicators of household financial stress, interest rates, confidence measures and demographic factors. Results show that housing market dynamics in Portugal are predominantly driven by GDP growth, with effects persisting across several quarters. Credit-related variables, particularly housing lending conditions and indicators of household financial fragility, exert significant influence. In contrast, short-term interest rates, confidence indicators and immigration flows do not exhibit statistically significant independent short-run effects. The findings highlight the relevance of macroeconomic and financial channels in shaping housing market fluctuations, supporting the need for coordinated housing and macroprudential policies to mitigate cyclical risks. The study provides a long-term empirical assessment of housing market dynamics in a Southern European economy that experienced financial crises, sovereign debt adjustment and post-pandemic recovery, integrating macroeconomic and financial determinants within a unified short-run analytical framework.